Huckabee leads Giuliani in Iowa
Mike Huckabee now leads Rudy Giuliani in Iowa, according to the latest Des Moines Register poll. It’s by only one point 12% to 11%, but it’s significant in that it shows he is being considered a viable candidate there and that Giuliani is not really concerned about Iowa.
The poll has Romney in the lead with 29 percent, Thompson second with 18 percent, Huckabee third with 12 and Giuliani right behind with 11. McCain is fifth with 7 percent.
Giuliani is essentially conceding Iowa. He hasn’t campaigned there since August. That gives Huckabee an in. If Thompson fades there, as he has in New Hampshire, the caucus result could be a repeat of the straw poll: Romney first, Huckabee second. But would Huck be able to convert that to any real momentum going into the crowded calendar that presumably would follow Iowa? He’ll need money, which he doesn’t have. And he’s not connecting with New Hampshire Republicans. A strong showing in Iowa followed by a trouncing in New Hampshire isn’t going to convince a lot of donors that he’s worth the bet. He’ll have to hope he can make it to South Carolina.
Giuliani’s absence from Iowa coincides with Thompson’s absence from New Hampshire. He hasn’t been here in a month. His poll numbers reflect that. Each seems convinced he can get the nomination without winning the early states. In a few months we’ll see whether that is sound thinking.
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